Regional projection studies for future temperature-attributable mortality due to climate change have been actively conducted for decades. Recently, these projection studies tried to estimate the future mortality more accurately by considering not only climate change but also population change and adaptation. However, these regional projection studies are heterogeneous in various aspects of their study designs. On the other hand, there are a few studies which examined the climate-change-induced health effects on global scale. However, these global-scale studies only compared the regional effects of climate change without detailed analysis as to why they vary. As a result, we still have poor understanding on the sources of the regional variations in climate-change-induced mortality. Qualitatively speaking, the regional mortality variations are the results of regional temperature increase and vulnerability. The temperature increases are known to vary from region to region depending on the various factors. The temperature vulnerability varies depending on factors such as population composition and medical level. It is important to deeply understand the key factors and their impacts on future temperature-attributable mortality. This study estimated the future temperature-related mortality in many locations worldwide. The temperature-mortality relationships were estimated using DLNM, and the effect of climate changes on future temperature-related mortality were predicted under RCP scenarios. Then, we examined the contributions of various factors on the regional variations in the mortality. In this analysis, we introduced a new normalized metric which shows the effect of climate change with respect to 100 ppm increase in global C02 concentrations. This study is important to relate the future mortality and 100 ppm increase in C02 concentration, thereby providing guidance for setting a carbon budget. Also, this study shows key factors in regional mortality variations.
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