Bridging macroeconomic and bottom up energy models – the case of efficiency in industry

摘要

Energy demand and supply projections for a country are generallybased on one of two types of models: macroeconomicmodels or bottom-up models for several sectors. Both typesof models are essential for future energy policy design and exante evaluation of energy and material efficiency strategies.However, both types have their strengths and limitations. Thesolution to this dilemma is to link both model types and runthem iteratively in order to benefit from their strengths andadvantages and avoid their limitations. This paper focuses onone essential element of a hybrid energy model system: thedata transformation of industrial production data from a macroeconomicmodel to an industrial sectoral bottom up modelof an existing hybrid energy model system. Making use of this"transformation module', the information of the macro model isconverted into physical units as input for the bottom-up modelsoperating as a "hard-link" between the two model types.This paper reports on energy-intensive industries such as metalproduction, pulp, paper, and printing, or non-metallic minerals,taking into account material efficiency improvements aswell as material substitution and, hence, this aspect of indirectenergy efficiency improvements.