DIVERSIFICATION PATHS AND ENERGY TRANSITIONS IN EUROPE IN THE LONG-TERM

摘要

The changes in the composition of the energy mix in the long run lead to energy transitions.However, the evolution of the energy mixes per se has not been studied in a long comparativeperspective, making use of synthetic indicators. We propose an indicator that allows to compare andcontrast the evolution of the composition of the primary energy baskets of eight European countriesover the last two centuries, and quantitatively analyze the degree of concentration (versusdiversification) of their energy mixes throughout the period. The indicator is based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. The results reveal that early comers, which are large energy consumers, andlatecomers, which historically consumed less energy, followed different paths in the diversification oftheir energy mixes: early comers endured a much more concentrated energy baskets than latecomerswould ever do, following distinct paths over time. Our results have implications for the transition to alower carbon economy if today’s developing countries follow a similar path to the latecomers of ourexample, since it seems easier to alter more diversified energy basket than a highly concentrated one.