Scenario based evaluation of policies addressing the German heating and cooling sector: A bottom-up modeling approach integrating buildings, industry and district heating

摘要

Energy demand for heating and cooling represents the largest energy use sector in Germany. Measures to enhance energy efficiency of buildings and industry processes are often considered as a cost-effective opportunity to reduce energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. Nevertheless, realized improvements in energy efficiency have failed to live up to expectations so far, raising the question if the targets set by the German government for the renewable heating sector are still feasible. This paper presents a variety of scenarios for the German heating and cooling sector up to 2020 using an exploratory modeling approach. Each scenario considers a certain set of different policy instruments which are analyzed by integrating four different techno-economic bottom-up sector models: INVERT/EE-Lab, Forecast-ProcIndustry, ProcServ and District heating/CHP model. The latter considers different building and settlement types to calculate the potential of district heating and CHP technologies subject to energy load of industry processes and buildings. The dynamic simulation model INVERT/ EE-Lab is applied to simulate investment decisions in energy efficiency measures and evaluate different support schemes in the building sector. Forecast-ProcIndustry and ProcServ describes the energy demand of process heating and cooling in industry and the service sector, respectively. The study assesses a wide range of different energy efficiency policies. The results are evaluated with respect to reduction of energy demand, carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy share as well as public costs. The results suggest that current policy measures in Germany are not sufficient to reach the national 2020 targets. However, scenarios with a combination of financial support instruments, stricter regulations and measures addressing stakeholder specific barriers are able to reach targets.