Forecasting the reliability and safety of future spacetransportation systems

摘要

Forecasting the future is can never be considered as an exactscience. However if the tools of risk assessment are used to developsuch forecasts in a systematic and coherent fashion, and if theyproperly take into account the uncertainty in the achievement of thepromised benefits of future designs, then, not only can the decisionmaking process be made more tractable and orderly, but designalternatives, which are not immediately apparent, may also come tolight. In this paper, the author forecasts the reliability and safety offuture space transportation systems