The Research on Risk Analysis for Technology Innovation Based on Simulation and the Theory of Variable Weight

摘要

A new quantified model of evaluating the economic risk of technology innovation project which based on Monte Carlo simulation technology has been proposed in this paper. That is use three point which are maximum possible value, minimum possible value and the most possible value to estimate the risk variable. Using AHP method, variable weight of delivered and extended risk to determine the weight of each risk factor in the model objectively, and verifying the method validity by example. The result denote the model can be effective to evaluate the technology innovation risks.