Exploring Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy development scenarios using the Fuzzy Cognitive Map Wizard Tool

摘要

Photovoltaic Solar Energy (PSE) sector has gained great attention during the last decades due to its significant role in the transition to sustainable energy systems. As a viable energy option, PSE has the potential to meet many of the challenges facing the world, along with the diminution of world’s dependency to fossil fuels, greenhouse gas emissions reduction and global warming mitigation. In the case of Brazil, the adoption of photovoltaic solar energy is mainly driven by the shortages and several other barriers that are met in the Brazilian energy sector. The development of the Brazilian PSE is the main concern of this study, and authors focus on the investigation of certain factors and their influence on this main outcome with the use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs). FCM is a well-established methodology for scenario analysis and management in diverse domains, and is based on fuzzy logic and neural networks aspects. In this paper we report particularly on the application of a new web-based software tool, called "FCMWizard", which can model complex and dynamic systems, implement several hypotheses and run various scenarios, helping decision-makers and stakeholders with the policy-making and energy management process. In this context, a semi-quantitative model was designed, which comprises 10 key concepts and three plausible scenarios were further conducted. The findings of this study highlight the economic and political influence on the development of the PSE sector in Brazil.