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Computational Modeling Framework for the Study of Infectious Disease Spread through Commercial Air-Travel

机译:商业航空传播传染病研究的计算模型框架

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This paper presents an integrated computational modelling framework combining pedestrian dynamics and infection spread models, to analyse the infectious disease spread during the different stages of air-travel. While, commercial air travel is central to the global mobility of goods and people, it has also been identified as a leading factor in the spread of several epidemic diseases including influenza, SARS and Ebola. The mixing of susceptible and infectious individuals in these high people density locations like airports involves pedestrian movement which needs to be taken into account in the modelling studies of disease dynamics. We develop a Molecular Dynamics based social force modeling approach for pedestrian dynamics and combine it with a stochastic infection dynamics model to evaluate the spread of viral infectious diseases in airplanes and airports. We apply the multiscale model for various key components of air travel and suggest strategies to reduce the number of contacts and the spread of infectious diseases. We simulate pedestrian movement during boarding and deplaning of some typical commercial airplane models and movement of people through security check areas. We found specific boarding strategies that reduce the number of contacts. Further, we find that smaller airplanes are more effective in reducing the number of contacts compared to larger airplanes. We propose certain queue configuration that reduces contacts between people and mitigate disease spread.
机译:本文提出了一个集成的计算建模框架,结合行人动力学和感染传播模型,以分析空中旅行不同阶段的传染病传播。虽然商业航空旅行是全球货物和人员流动的中心,但它也已被认为是多种流行疾病(包括流感,SARS和埃博拉)传播的主要因素。在这些人口稠密的地方(如机场),易感人群和传染性人群的混合涉及行人运动,在疾病动力学的建模研究中需要考虑到这一点。我们针对行人动力学开发了一种基于分子动力学的社会力量建模方法,并将其与随机感染动力学模型相结合,以评估飞机和机场中病毒感染性疾病的传播。我们将多尺度模型应用于航空旅行的各个关键组成部分,并提出减少接触人数和传染病传播的策略。我们在登机和下飞机时模拟一些典型的商用飞机模型中的行人移动,以及通过安全检查区域的人员移动。我们发现了减少登机人数的特定登机策略。此外,我们发现,与大型飞机相比,小型飞机在减少接触数量方面更为有效。我们提出某些队列配置,以减少人与人之间的联系并减轻疾病传播。

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