Prediction of Graft Dysfunction in Pediatric Liver Transplantation by Logistic Regression

摘要

Liver transplantation (LT) is the last therapeutic option for children with acute and chronic end-stage liver disease. Nowadays survival rates are over 90–95% and 70% within one year and five years post-transplantation, respectively. The main complications in the postoperative period are related to the function of the graft. The graft dysfunction early after LT is an important cause of morbidity and mortality. Numerous factors can affect the function of the graft after pediatric LT. Therefore our aim is to identify the risk factors in order to help prevent the graft failure. In the present work, by means of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, the probabilities of graft dysfunction in the early postoperative period after LT are estimated. As predictors in the constructed logistic models the following parameters have been analyzed: levels of bilirubin, sodium, creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR) in blood plasma, post-transplant MELD score (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease) and cold ischemia time on the 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, 5^th, 7^th and 10^th postoperative day. The models were based on 31 patient’s data obtained at the University Hospital “Lozenets” – Sofia, Bulgaria.