Forecast of Freight Traffic of Waterways Based on Grey Model of Residual Correction

摘要

Freight traffic of waterways is an important indicator for evaluating freight volume and the basis for decision-making management of freight traffic of waterways. Therefore, the forecast of freight traffic of waterways has important research significance. Grey system theory can make better predictions for small sample data and has a wide range of applications in the fields of economics and industrial control. Therefore, this paper intends to use the GM (1, 1) model in the grey model to predict the freight traffic of waterways. However, because a single grey prediction model has a single change rule about exponent, it is difficult to use the grey model alone to make more accurate predictions of fluctuating data such freight volume. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, the paper makes a residual correction to the model. Finally, the data of freight traffic of waterways from 2007 to 2016 is used as a sample to predict the data of 2017 and 2018 for case analysis and model verification. The research results show that the GM (1, 1) model based on the residual error correction is a suitable model and can better forecast the freight volume of water transportation.