Reasoning and Decision Making under Uncertainty and Risk for Situation Management

摘要

This paper addresses the problem of situation management in an uncertain and ambiguous environment. It presents an approach to reasoning and decision making for identifying asymmetric threats and preventing or mitigating possible catastrophic consequences under resource constraints. Decision making for action selection incorporates decision makers' attitude toward risk and uncertainty in the situations involving regular as well as high consequence rare events. The presented approach is based on the OODA loop and implemented within the framework of the Transferable Belief Model, Choquet Expected Utility, Multiple Quantile Model, abductive reasoning utilizing the Belief-based argumentation, and the Anytime decision making. A quality control component is added to the OODA loop to deal with possible insufficient quality of input information and results of processes involved. An example illustrating the approach is presented in this paper.