A Simple Malaria Transmission Model Applied to DRC

摘要

Malaria is endemic in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and it is one of the most severe diseases in the country. In this paper, we develop and analyze malaria transmission model with saturated incidence rate. The basic reproduction number, R0, was calculated by the next generation technique. The model has a malaria-free equilibrium (MFE) which is locally asymptomatically stable when R0 < 1. After that, we simulated the malaria data of Democratic Republic of the Congo that was reported by World Health Organization and predict the trends of the disease in the future. Our simulation results show that the malaria is endemic disease in the country. Moreover, we perform sensitivity analysis of R0. According to our simulation and sensitive analysis results, we give some suggestions to reduce and control the disease in DRC.