Electrical Load Forecasting Techniques employed in Power Sector of Pakistan

摘要

This paper elaborates different methodologies used in National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) Pakistan for electrical energy and power demand forecast i.e. Regression Analysis and Power Market Survey (PMS). It includes forecasting both energy and peak power demand for Pakistan's power system. Forecast energy and power demands with high precision is highly significant; an underestimation will result in load shedding and an overestimation will cause overinvestment. For regression analysis, top-down econometric technique of Ordinary Least Square is applied at disaggregate level i.e. domestic, commercial, industrial and agriculture sector to forecast energy consumption. PMS methodology is categorized as bottom up approach, i.e. energy and power demands are forecasted from 11kV feeder level, DISCO level and finally aggregated for NTDC level. The comparison between the two methodologies is presented in the paper as well. Moreover, the forecasted demand is compared with actual demand experienced historically.