Extended Abstract: Using Bayesian Priors to Assess and Communicate Risk in Professional Communication

摘要

The practice of identifying, determining, and reevaluating the numerical values known as “priors” used in Bayesian statistical analysis differs from the more traditional frequentist statistical method for improving the accuracy of a study by increasing the sample size. Professional communicators need to be cognizant of this method as it allows them to better assess data in an effort to determine and communicate risk. More specifically, this process creates a forward- looking mindset that allows communicators to work with others to better imagine and determine the “unknown unknowns” that precipitate tragic events or damaging phenomena in our global society or natural world.