Reconstruction of an Intense Mesoscale Convective System in the Midwestern United States Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in the Simulation Mode

摘要

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are large clusters of thunderstorms that act as a single system generating localized extreme precipitation and causing disastrous flooding and destruction in the central United States. To enhance our modeling of such storm events, especially under future climate projections, this study focuses on modeling MCSs through the use of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model running in the simulation mode, i.e., without any nudging or other data assimilation techniques. In this study, the WRF model is run using several combinations of the different model parameterization schemes and is used to reconstruct an intense historical MCS over the Midwestern United States. The simulation results are then compared to the observation. The model's performance is evaluated through the use of a few statistical tests as well as a visual comparison, and the best simulation is chosen based on the statistical tests as well as the location, intensity, and texture of the simulated storm event. From this exercise, we find that the WRF model, running in the simulation mode, has the capability of reproducing intense historical MCSs relatively well over the Midwestern United States under the appropriate model parameterization scheme combination.