Reliability Assessment of Buenos Aires Power Grid Using Monte Carlo Method

摘要

The Electrical Power Grid is a complex system allocating a large amount of components which have to operate simultaneously in order to deliver energy from generation facilities to consumption. Such components can suffer faults causing partial or total system collapse. The occurrence of these faults is typically random. Therefore it is necessary to consider this random nature of the system to avoid or reduce blackouts.In order to develop a risk-based approach in the decision making process for the operation and planning of the power grid this paper uses Monte Carlo methods to analyse the Gran Buenos Aires high voltage network. Such an approach is the most suitable because it considers not only the severity and impact of the different component faults but also its likelihood.As a first step this paper shows the development of a model for the current operation of the system. This model uses Python as program language, which allows running PSS/E software for power flow calculations, providing all the information needed for determining key reliability indexes.These indexes such as expected energy non-supplied and risk index are the used to adjust the model parameters. This method's ability to evaluate multiple possible scenarios allows: the identification of several risks regarding their probability, prioritizing maintenance actions, evaluating the benefit of different green field or expansion projects and comparing different operational schemes.This probabilistic approach offers another perspective when conducting the planning process, evaluating the enhancement of the system reliability as a profitability key performance indicator.