Technology Forecasting with Science Indicators: The Case of Laptop Battery Futures

摘要

This paper forecasts technological change for laptop batteries. Laptop performance has incrementally improved and power demand has increased requiring batteries with higher energy densities. The most promising technology to replace laptop batteries emerging today is the fuel-cell. Currently Li-ion batteries power laptop or mobile computers. Li-ion batteries with their high charge potentials promise to be the battery with the highest energy density. The problem is that there is currently a technical performance gap in the length of time that a battery can keep a laptop functioning.