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Financial Optimization of Condition Assessment Spending for Pipeline Replacement Programs

机译:管道置换计划状态评估支出的财务优化

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When planning a pipeline replacement program, drinking water companies are faced with a dilemma. On the one hand, factual information about the condition of the water mains will lead to better decisions about which mains to replace, which in turn leads to long-term capital efficiency gains. On the other hand, gathering this information is costly, and only provides financial value when the information leads to a better decision being made. Performing a cost-benefit analysis of the case for data gathering is also difficult, as the benefits are difficult to project. This paper investigates the relationship between the amount of information collected on the condition of water mains and the quality of replacement / rehabilitation decisions made on those mains. A mathematical model based on quantifying the financial risk associated with decision making errors is introduced. This model predicts the financial benefits of information collection programs, as a function of the amount of condition information gathered. An economic optimization equation using the model is presented. This equation yields the Economic Assessment Level: the amount of condition information needed to minimize the total combined spending on information gathering and incorrect decisions. Case studies and examples of the impact of different levels of information gathering are presented. The results of these programs are compared with the predictions of the model, illustrating how the calculations can be used to improve capital improvement program efficiency real world situations.
机译:在规划管道更换计划时,饮用水公司面临两难境地。一方面,有关供水总管状况的事实信息将有助于更好地决定更换哪些供水总管,进而带来长期的资本效率收益。另一方面,收集此信息的成本很高,并且仅在信息导致做出更好的决策时才提供财务价值。对案例进行成本效益分析以收集数据也很困难,因为很难预测收益。本文调查了有关水管状况的信息量与这些水管的更换/修复决策质量之间的关系。介绍了一种基于量化与决策错误相关的财务风险的数学模型。该模型根据收集到的条件信息的数量来预测信息收集程序的财务收益。提出了使用该模型的经济优化方程。该方程式得出的经济评估水平是:条件信息量,该信息量用于最大程度地减少信息收集和错误决策上的总支出。介绍了案例研究和不同级别信息收集的影响的示例。这些程序的结果与模型的预测结果进行了比较,说明了如何使用这些计算来改善现实世界中资本改进程序的效率。

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