Simulation study on evolvement mechanism of group events in large projects

摘要

Group events triggered by the construction of large projects always have a bad effect and in urgent need to reveal its evolvement mechanism and find ways to handle them. To analyze the evolvement mechanism of these events systematically, in this paper: first, the core factors influencing the large projects group events are analyzed and identified. Then integrating previous studies and practical situations, a complete factor system is built on three levels. Second, a nonlinear simulation model is constructed to quantify the core factors. The mood function is applied to describe the conflict degree of group events. Then the simulation process is carried out to reveal the intrinsic evolution among group events. Finally, two sets of scenario experiments are designed to simulate the evolution of group events in large projects. The results both conform to the practical situation, which proves the effectiveness of the model.