Combined forecasting of patient arrivals and doctor rostering simulation modelling for hospital emergency department

摘要

This paper studied the complexities of reducing patient waiting time in an Emergency Department by using a combined ARIMA forecasting approach with discrete event simulation modelling. The forecasted patient arrivals using ARIMA technique were used as inputs to the doctor rostering model built with discrete event simulation methodology. The intention of this study was to conduct comparisons between current waiting times and potential reduction of waiting times by optimizing the doctor rosters. The optimal doctor roster was selected by experimenting with patient categories bearing different severity of medical conditions (who are to be attended to within different time durations) through simulation models combined with forecasted results. Simulation results are analysed, and the results based on daily and hourly forecasted patient arrivals show potential significant waiting time reductions with optimal doctor rostering.