Assessment of Arms Import Policies: Literature Review

摘要

Arms transfer policies are generally not aligned between supplier and recipient nations. Hence they involve complex and protracted negotiations and decision making. Decision modeling has been established as an effective method of resolution for such complex scenarios, however, this is a novel approach in arms transfer policy making. In this paper, import policies of recipients are investigated as a required phase for developing a holistic decision model for each side. The objective is to identify policy criteria. For a comprehensive assessment of the arms import policies, a literature review is conducted in multidisciplinary fields of study such as political science, economics, and military science. The results indicate that some topics are field-specific while others, such as diffusions, offsets, and economic considerations are common to multiple disciplines. Hence, a multiple-perspectives approach is applied to include technological, economic, political, industrial, and military (TEPIM) in formulating the decision model for recipients. To conclude, the paper suggests a hierarchical decision model (HDM) framework that incorporates the multiple TEPIM perspectives, their associated criteria, and alternatives to be considered by recipients in making an effective arms import policy. Future research will include a validation process with expert panels to better define the decision model.