WILL CHINA’S “DASH FOR GAS” HALT IN THE FUTURE? A DEMAND-SUPPLY STUDY UTILIZING PARTIAL ADJUSTMENT MODEL WITH AGGREGATE AND INDUSTRIAL-SECTOR PANEL DATA

摘要

We rely on a partial equilibrium adjustment model and two-step Blundell-Bond system GMM method to analyze the natural gas demand in China and find the growth rate in the future is much lower than that in previous years. We further identify the driving force is the slowdown of industrial growth. As for supply capacity, we investigate the capacity of domestic production and international import. When placing supply and demand together, we conclude it is very likely that supply would exceed demand in future China.