Predicted Risks Versus Actual Outcomes

摘要

Performing risk analyses on tunnel projects has become common place and on many projects it is required from an owner or regulatory perspective. After the project is planned, designed and constructed, the data concerning identified risks, assumptions, costs, probabilities and mitigations is generally long forgotten and buried in some file somewhere. A study was performed comparing predicted risks versus actual events on four recently constructed rock tunnel projects in New York, Ohio, Georgia and California. Probabilities and costs for selectively common risks on tunnel projects have been studied and re-evaluated. Conclusions are presented that can guide future projects and the veracity of the tunnel risk analyses performed.