首页> 外文会议>Construction research congress >Fuzzy System Dynamics for Modeling Construction Risk Management
【24h】

Fuzzy System Dynamics for Modeling Construction Risk Management

机译:建筑工程风险管理建模的模糊系统动力学

获取原文

摘要

The unique nature of construction projects and uncertainties during project execution make construction a highly risk-prone industry. The system dynamics (SD) approach, which focuses on the cause-effect relationship of model variables, is a viable option to model and analyze construction risks, which are considered to be highly dynamic, and has the ability to capture the interrelationships and interactions among different risks. However, conventional SD has a limited ability to handle risk imprecision and uncertainty; these elements can be best dealt with using fuzzy logic. Research endeavors to integrate SD and fuzzy logic so as to address the shortcomings of SD in construction risk modeling and analysis are very few. In this paper, a methodology for developing a fuzzy system dynamics (FSD) framework is proposed that combines the strengths of SD with those of fuzzy logic to improve construction risk modeling and develop risk mitigation strategies. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) identifying research gaps in FSD modeling; (2) providing a systematic and detailed methodology for developing the FSD framework; and (3) examining existing approaches for representing fuzzy variables and fuzzy rules, and the impact of different fuzzy arithmetic operators and defuzzification methods in FSD models.
机译:建设项目的独特性质和项目执行过程中的不确定性使建设成为一个容易发生风险的行业。系统动力学(SD)方法着重于模型变量的因果关系,是一种建模和分析施工风险的可行选择,该风险被认为是高度动态的,并且能够捕获相互之间的相互关系和相互作用。不同的风险。但是,传统的SD处理风险不精确性和不确定性的能力有限;使用模糊逻辑可以最好地处理这些元素。为了解决SD在建筑风险建模和分析中的缺点,将SD与模糊逻辑相集成的研究工作很少。本文提出了一种开发模糊系统动力学(FSD)框架的方法,该方法将SD的优势与模糊逻辑的优势相结合,以改善施工风险建模并制定风险缓解策略。本文的主要贡献是:(1)找出FSD建模中的研究空白; (2)为制定FSD框架提供系统,详细的方法; (3)研究现有的表示模糊变量和模糊规则的方法,以及不同的模糊算术运算符和反模糊化方法在FSD模型中的影响。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号