The Study on Diffusion Model of Innovation based on Infections Disease Model

摘要

Because the technology diffusion is very similar to the spread of infectious diseases, this paper formulated the model of single technology diffusing in one enterprise cluster, the model of single technology diffusing in several enterprise clusters and the model of several technologies diffusing in one enterprise cluster by applying the classical epidemic model (SIR model). By the way of analyzing to the three kinds of models, the influence of alternative technology and the interrelationship of competitive technologies in technology diffusion are studied. It is concluded that only if the sum of all the technology diffusion rates is greater than the sum of the alternative technology accepting rate and the enterprise bankruptcy rate, the technology diffusion phenomena can be kept, and besides, the proportion of the two kinds of competitive technologies assumes the exponential change along with the ratio of their success rates of technology diffusion.