Understanding risk perception using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

摘要

When making decision that can have far-researching effects, such as governmental policies or decisions on new technologies, decision-makers use their understanding of the risks that are associated with their choices to guide their decisions. Measuring how people perceive risks can be helpful for understanding and possibly improving the decision-making process. Building on a review of existing methods for investigating risk perceptions, this paper suggests Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as a method for investigating differences in risk perception among stakeholders and stakeholder groups. The approach is illustrated with an example of wildfire risk perceptions. Results suggest that FCM can contribute to risk perception studies and provide means to improve Communications between different stakeholder groups and their involvement in the decision-making process.