Prediction of natural gas consumption using empirical models

摘要

Prediction of natural gas consumption of a town is very important for its logistics and district heating workflow. In this paper different empirical models are introduced for gas consumption prediction. The models are based on the characteristics of gas consumption data that was gathered in Ljubljana, Slovenia. Important observables were recognized from the data and the models were structured according to the correlation found in the data. The models are tested on forecasted weather data up to 60 hours into the future so that they can be used in realistic setting. The models presented in this paper are also able to model rare events such as public and school holidays.