How Long Can US Product Exports Continue to Grow?

摘要

Over the past decade, the US refined product net trade balance has shifted dramatically, with exports increasing on average by 350 kbd per year. This transformation has been founded upon weak demand growth, high refinery utilisation and increased non-refinery sources of supply. A key question for US refiners is whether US refined product exports can continue to grow over the medium term. Wood Mackenzie's outlook for US gasoline demand is that it declines over the medium term due to improving vehicle efficiency. This hence provides the basis for a return to export growth if high refinery utilisation can be maintained. Given the projected growth in US gasoline exports exceeds the deficits available in the Atlantic Basin markets of Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, the key issue for prospective US gasoline exporters is to how to supply Asia, a region with growing gasoline deficits. The key gasoline deficit markets in Asia are Indonesia, Australia, Malaysia and Vietnam. Wood Mackenzie's refinery competitiveness metric of Net Cash Margin (equivalent to EBITDA per barrel) shows that, for 2014. the margin advantage enjoyed by US refiners was greater than that of refiners in key Asian deficit markets by more than the costs of freight between the regions. The repeal of the US crude export ban at the end of 2015 reduces the competitive advantage enjoyed by US refiners, but with our projected recovery in global crude oil prices and an associated return to growth of US tight oil supplies, we consider gasoline exports from the US to Asia will be commercially viable in the medium term. Sustaining gasoline supplies and exports will be vital to maintain the high utilisation and earnings of US refiners. The factors of different demand seasonally and a wide variation of product quality specifications across Asia suggest US refiners need to consider the appropriate business model and associated infrastructure developments to sustain long haul exports of gasoline components to markets outside the Atlantic Basin.