Analysis of critical infrastructure operation process including operating environment threats

摘要

The operation process of the critical infrastructure is considered and its operation states are introduced. The semi-Markov process is used to construct a general probabilistic model of the critical infrastructure operation process. To build this model, the vector of probabilities of the critical infrastructure operation process staying at the initial operation states, the matrix of probabilities of the critical infrastructure operation process transitions between the operation states and the matrix of conditional distribution functions of the critical infrastructure operation process conditional sojourn times at the operation states are defined. Further, considering a significant influence of the critical infrastructure operating environment threats on its operation process and safety, more precise and convergent to reality model of the critical infrastructure operation process related to critical infrastructure operating environment threats is built.