Adequacy assessment of generation system based on time-sequential state transition matrices of wind speeds

摘要

The adequacy assessment of generation system including wind farm is a complicated process due to the inherent uncertainty of wind power generation. To evaluate the reliability benefit of the integration of wind power properly, it is critical to model the stochastic characteristics of wind power generation accurately. Considering that wind power output highly depends on wind speed, several methods to simulate wind speed have been studied. However, some statistical indices that obtained from the wind speeds simulated by the existing methods and the historical wind data do not match exactly. In this paper, a novel model, where time-sequential transition matrices of wind speed are established based on historical hourly data, is proposed to simulate the wind speed series. The proposed model is compared with probability sampling, time series analysis in terms of several statistical indices, and it is observed that the proposed method has an advantage over other methods. Through the wind integrated IEEE-RTS test system, the ability of different wind speed models to reflect the macroscopic statistical properties of actual wind speed data is compared. Besides, the impact of different wind speed models on the adequacy assessment of generation system is analyzed.