A novel analysis and forecast method of electricity business expanding based on seasonal adjustment

摘要

Inefficient utilization of electricity business expanding data in State Grid Companies related departments still exist. It is because of their excessive attention on the speed of electricity supply and the quality of service, but ignores the potential useful information of the data implied in the future electricity sale market. With this regard, this paper proposes a novel analysis and forecast method of electricity business expanding based on seasonal adjustment, which focuses more closely on the relationship between expanding capacity and electricity consumption. Firstly, the seasonal adjustment method on power consumption of customer aims at eliminating the influence of seasonal fluctuation on the trend of electricity consumption growth, seeking the internal rules of their time series, and selecting typical customers that are representative. The release rules of newly installed capacity of the customer group consisted of the selected typical customers can be obtain by the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method. Secondly, the seasonal adjustments on expanding capacity and electricity sales are respectively used to find their trend cycles (TC). The month that the correlation degree of the two trend cycles is maximal can be found out through the grey correlation analysis method to realize the electricity sales forecasting. Compared to conventional electricity demand forecasting method, the proposed method can effectively overcome the regional power grid unstable problem resulted from the inaccurate statistic rule of the conventional method and improve the accuracy of electricity forecasting. Example analysis verifies the validity and engineering practicability of the proposed method.