One Size Does Not Fit All: An Alternative Way to Evaluate GHG Emissions Reductions

摘要

In December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first legally binding climate agreement scheduled to enter into force in 2020. While the Paris Climate Conference does not impose legally binding emissions targets, governments are required to submit Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDCs) that state their plans to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The October 22, 2015 INDC of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) sets forth several measures to diversify its petroleum-based economy that will have mitigation co-benefits. Economic diversification may not yield immediate GHG emissions reductions; however, high-income nations have a lower rate of GHG emissions per gross domestic product (GDP) than those with a middle or low income. Therefore, it may be more important to decouple GHG emissions from economic growth and compare GHG emissions per GDP. Such analysis will enable policymakers to evaluate whether a country is successfully transitioning to a high technology, low-carbon economy. In addition, a larger GDP may yield secondary climate benefits resulting from increased investment of in research and development of sustainable energy and foreign aid to developing countries. This paper will explain why the UAE's INDC should decouple GHG emissions from economic growth and frame mitigation efforts in terms of GHG emissions per GDP. Encouraging emissions reductions in relation to expanding GDP will ensure the development of knowledge, service-based sectors and investment in renewable energy/clean technologies both domestically and abroad. Moreover, as nations increase wealth, they may be more likely to invest in clean energy and provide foreign aid to developing countries so that they too are able to transform their energy production and economies. Use of an economic indicator, such as GHG emissions per GDP, and consideration of secondary climate benefits flowing from a higher GDP provides a more holistic and long-term evaluation of a nation's efforts to mitigate GHG emissions.