Mapping Climate Change, Landslide Hazards, and Vulnerability: A Case Study from Seoul, South Korea

摘要

It is anticipated that the future climate in Korea will cause increased vulnerability towards rapid mass movement events. As the criteria for assessing mass movement vulnerability to climate change in Seoul, the sensitivity and exposure indices were employed. To access the landslide sensitivity index, a landslide susceptibility model which has been developed by using maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) under different future rainfall projection. The projected rainfall climatic scenario was adopted from concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 and to compare results. The area identified as high susceptible was considered for the runout propagation. For this purpose modified multi-directional algorithm was used. The buildings were quantified as exposure in runout hazards in different climatic scenario.