SEIR Evolutionary Simulation Model of the Infectious Disease Emergency

摘要

A SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) evolutionary game and multi-agents simulation model of the infectious disease emergency is proposed. The two types of parties of the game are the government sectors and the public and the interaction between strategies and states of the public is taken into consideration in the model. It includes four types of states of the public, susceptible (S), infected (I), exposed (E) and recovered (R) states and the states could be switched from each other. At the same time, the evolutionary game is done between 'I' and 'E' individuals in the public and government sectors. From the simulation of the multi-agents model, the results is shown that the public adopt the self-control strategy more, the supervision strength of the government sectors is fluctuated in a high level and with the emergency from the outbreak to the decline, the E state of the public is the key of the evolution.