Simulation and prediction of the spatiotemporal transmission of Sudden Oak Death (SOD) based on spatial information technology

摘要

Sudden Oak Death (SOD) has emerged rapidly and repeatedly in US and Europe, with devastating impact upon forest ecosystems and causing severe economic hardship to nursery operation. It has potential host vegetation with large spans in China which has similar environment and climate. Yunnan province was selected as typical study area here for EU and NA evolutionary lineage. It is assumed that there was a SOD outbreak in Yunnan, and then a temporal and spatial dynamic model simulating disease spreading within a short range was deduced preliminarily based on the transmission mechanism abroad, environmental factors derived from spatial information technique and Cellular Automation. The research result shows that the spore contact rate and dispersion area of NA lineage is higher than EU lineage's, and the simulation result is certainly consistent with seasonal fluctuation in the outbreaks. Control measurements must be performed before April if SOD happened in China.