Monitoring and predicting the changes of vegetation coverage in Shijiazhuang from 1995 to 2015

摘要

This paper was intend to reveal the changes and grasp the trend of vegetation coverage in Shijiazhuang from 1995 to 2015. Firstly, dimidiate pixel model was used to calculate 6 periods of fractional vegetation coverage in Shijiazhuang based on Landsat TM/OLI data of 1995, 2001, 2007, 2009, 2012 and 2015, then CV model and Slope model were used to analysis spatial change characteristics and the trend, finally CA-Markov model was used to predict the vegetation coverage condition in Shijiazhuang in 2018. Results showed that the average of fractional vegetation coverage increased 3.71% from 1995 to 2015; the average CV of the whole city was 0.211, the main reason for vegetation coverage changes is human intervention; almost invariant and three levels of getting better areas were 82.22% of the city, three levels of getting worse were distributed in urban construction and economy development active areas; by 2018, the areas of high and medium-high vegetation coverage in Shijiazhuang will decrease, the areas of medium and low vegetation coverage will increase, the areas of very-low vegetation coverage will be almost invariant, the changes of vegetation coverage in the whole Shijiazhuang will trend to be stable.