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Risk-informed assessment of Scott Stadium evacuation through agent-based simulation

机译:通过基于代理的模拟对斯科特体育场疏散的风险信息评估

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The risk of personal injury from lightning and other threats is increasing without being consistently addressed through continuous improvement of evacuation operations. Three major factors contribute to this growing risk. First, natural and man-made disasters (e.g., lightning storms) remain a constant threat. Second, stadium expansion, renovation, and increased utilization allow more spectators at a greater number of events, which amplifies nation-wide exposure to both natural and man-made disasters. Third, evacuation and disaster management plans are quite complex because they require the coordination of spectators, ushers, managers, police officers, firefighters, medical teams, and athletes, among others, and do not always keep up with the changes to stadium or community emergency management procedures. Analysts are increasingly able to capture certain individual and crowd behaviors through simulation. Our team has constructed a simulation by section, ensuring the quality and correctness of the utilized computer drawings and making corrections as necessary to build a valid model. Through analysis of individual subsections of the stadium, we have noticed that 99% of the attendees within the 70 sections of a total of approximately 60,000 people evacuated in about 19 minutes, with 50% of the population evacuated in 6 minutes and 95% of the population evacuated within 15 minutes. The full capacity evacuation started with evacuees in the stands, and the first evacuees reached the exits within the first minute.
机译:由于持续改进疏散行动,避雷和其他威胁的人身伤害的风险正在增加,而不会一致地解决。三个主要因素有助于这种不断增长的风险。首先,自然和人为灾害(例如,雷暴风暴)仍然是一个不断的威胁。其次,体育场扩张,装修和利用率增加,允许更多的观众在更多的事件中,这可以放大全国范围的暴露于自然和人为灾害。第三,疏散和灾害管理计划非常复杂,因为他们需要协调观众,迎员,经理,警察,消防员,医疗团队和运动员等,并且并不总是对体育场或社区紧急的变化保持不变管理程序。分析师越来越能够通过模拟捕捉某些个人和人群行为。我们的团队通过部分构建了模拟,确保了使用的计算机图纸的质量和正确性,并根据需要进行校正以构建有效的模型。通过分析体育馆的个别小节,我们注意到,99%的与会者在大约19分钟内疏散的70个部分,其中50%的人口在6分钟和95%的95%下撤离人口在15分钟内撤离。疏散的全部产能疏散在摊位中开始,第一个撤离者在第一分钟内达到了出口。

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