Advances in Simulation-Based Quantification/Assessment of Seismic Risk Supported by Stochastic Ground Motion Modeling

摘要

This paper focuses on a simulation-based framework for quantification/assessment of seismic risk (expressed through life-cycle cost), relying on stochastic ground motion models for description of the earthquake hazard. It discusses the opportunities provided by recent advances in high-performance computing (parallel/distributed simulations), focusing on methodologies that allow an efficient, concurrent estimation of the risk for different scenarios (related, for example, to regional seismicity). It also reviews a novel methodology for global sensitivity analysis, which is integrated within the risk assessment and aims to identify what factors contribute more towards the overall risk. As an illustrative example a benchmark case study of a three-storey concrete structure is presented. In this example, repair costs are estimated using an assembly-based vulnerability approach that uses the nonlinear time history of the structural response to provide a detailed estimate of earthquake losses at a component-level.