Uncertainty Analysis in Crop Productivity Remote Estimation for Agricultural Risks Assessment

摘要

This paper aimed to study of method of satellite spectral reflectance indexes harnessing for crop productivity control and forecasting. The general method is proposed and discussed in the framework of general stochastic model of socio-economic regional development. The set of spectral indexes have been selected for control of bio-productivity and its variability analysis. The method for analysis of uncertainties of the method of productivity assessment by remote sensing data has been proposed. The separate components of uncertainties and corresponding errors have been estimated. Way to control the threshold productivity toward the harmful impact (for example, droughts) as the approach to risk assessment is proposed. Spectral reflectance indexes NDVI, VCI, VHI, TCI, PDI, SAVI have been proposed for assessment of crop productivity and control of critical values of productivity. Other functionals of used indexes, for example FPAR, LAI are effective tools for control of modeling variables.