Forecasting of diffusion pattern: A case example of OLED technology

摘要

Technology changes create an enormous impact to every company. To survive in this fast-changing environment, companies need to find a proper way to manage their technologies and prepare for new technology investment. One crucial issue for technology managers to consider after determining the strategic timing for technology substitution is to know what diffusion pattern of new technology would be. This issue is important as the management of companies can effectively prepare themselves to be ready for upcoming market opportunity. This paper presents the analysis of the Bass diffusion model to forecast the diffusion pattern of OLED technology in portable devices. The analysis indicates that using p and q value derived from analogous product, cellular telephone, results in realistic diffusion pattern (p = 0.008 and, q = 0.421). The result reveals that OLED portable device sales start to boost up in 2013 and increase significantly around 2015-2017.