Ship and cargo services operational risk controlling through Bayesian subjective probability as a reference for the maritime port information technology planning

摘要

One of The economic growth adaption which was done by a country as a response to globalization effect is the development of competitiveness capabilities through the maritime ports industry. Risk assessment and mitigation is the important thing that need integration between relevant transaction and information exchange. The Events of deviation was occurred from interaction can be negligence or deliberateness that cause risk raising have relation to the finance. The example is losing revenue or increasing unpredictable cost. The risk determination can be based on interaction to the personnel or the parties that have more understanding of the workings and characteristics of the events that they deal. Therefore, Bayesian Subjective Probability can be used as a subjective facility to determine risk probabilities. This research arranges a model for risk controlling that inherent in loss activities in ship and cargo operational services early in order to minimize risk consequences to the operational revenue and the cost of the maritime port, especially for ship and cargo services. the model can be used as a reference to arrange information technology architecture of the maritime port which it had the function to reinforce the controls of the risks.