A new optimized grey verhulst model and its application

摘要

In order to improve the precision of grey forecasting model, an optimized grey verhulst model based on grey prediction modeling mechanism is proposed in this paper. At first, the traditional grey verhulst model is given and an inherent error is found for this model. Then, a new method is used to construct the optimized grey derivative. Furthermore, auxiliary parameters are proposed, and original parameters can be restored by equations which meet the property of unbiasedness. In the last section, the new model is used to check the property of unbiasedness and forecast the development cost of Y125. This application is presented to illustrate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model.