It has been shown that news events influence the trends of stock price movements. However, previous work on news-driven stock market prediction rely on shallow features (such as bags-of-words, named entities and noun phrases), which do not capture structured entity-relation information, and hence cannot represent complete and exact events. Recent advances in Open Information Extraction (Open IE) techniques enable the extraction of structured events from web-scale data. We propose to adapt Open IE technology for event-based stock price movement prediction, extracting structured events from large-scale public news without manual efforts. Both linear and nonlinear models are employed to empirically investigate the hidden and complex relationships between events and the stock market. Large-scale experiments show that the accuracy of S&P 500 index prediction is 60%, and that of individual stock prediction can be over 70%. Our event-based system outperforms bags-of-words-based baselines, and previously reported systems trained on S&P 500 stock historical data.
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