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Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis Using Morgenstern-Price Method

机译:Morgenstern-Price方法的概率边坡稳定性分析

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This paper presents a new method to analyze the slope stability that considers the spatial variability of soil properties from the probabilistic point of view. Orthogonal decomposition is performed to spatial covariance matrix of soil strength by Karhunen-Loeve expansion (K-L). Then the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and the Cholesky decomposition method are used to optimize the generated spatial random fields. In the proposed method, a readily available concise algorithm is utilized to calculate the factor of safety for each preset slip surface. The optimization technique is then adopted to search for the global critical slip surface. The generated samples are examined to be rational for they are good enough to match the objective function. Results show that the samples can reduce the simulation number greatly compared to Monte Carlo method (MC), while the calculated failure probabilities from LHS method and MC method are close to each other. Sensitivity analysis of geometric parameters shows that the correlation length exerts minor influence on the slope stability. The failure probability increases with the increasing of slope angle, slope height and the coefficient of variability. For a given slope, the results show that only the combined using of factor of safety and failure probability could be effective enough for the slope safety evaluation.
机译:本文提出了一种从概率角度考虑土质空间变异性的边坡稳定性分析新方法。利用Karhunen-Loeve展开法(K-L)对土壤强度的空间协方差矩阵进行正交分解。然后,使用拉丁超立方体采样(LHS)和Cholesky分解方法来优化生成的空间随机场。在所提出的方法中,利用了易于使用的简洁算法来计算每个预设滑移面的安全系数。然后采用优化技术来搜索全局临界滑动面。检查生成的样本是否合理,因为它们足够好以匹配目标函数。结果表明,与蒙特卡罗方法(MC)相比,样本可以大大减少仿真次数,而从LHS方法和MC方法计算得出的失效概率却彼此接近。几何参数敏感性分析表明,相关长度对边坡稳定性影响较小。失效概率随着边坡角,边坡高度和变异系数的增加而增加。对于给定的边坡,结果表明,只有结合使用安全系数和破坏概率才能对边坡安全性评估足够有效。

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