LAND RECLAMATIION DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA AT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

摘要

Worldwide irrigated lands which occupy about 17% of the total arable land area provide halfworld population with agricultural production. In the end of the 80s agricultural productionhaving been gathered from the irrigated lands which occupied 7,9% of the total arable landarea contributed 15-17% to the agricultural gross product in the money equivalent in theRussian Federation. Nowadays about 20 mln. hectares of the arable lands require to beirrigated in Russia.However the available water recourses are not suffi cient to irrigate the required area in someregions of the Russian Federation, so the perspective irrigated area may be decreased to 10mln. hectares without taking into account water recourses diversion of runoff.Global warming has the most complex infl uence in the area between 40 and 70 degrees ofthe northern latitude (Kisilev, 2011). Besides positive trend in the average annual temperaturethroughout the country the amount of extremely hot days as well as the duration of the veryhot terms are expected to be increased. According to some simulation mathematical modelson climate change global warming by 1.4-5.8 oC is expected to occur from 1990 till 2015(Climate change, 2007). Global processes are being accompanied by precipitation decreasewithin the territory of the Russian Federation which can reduce the available water supply andincrease draught frequency (Ivanov, 2003).