PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD DISASTER IN SOUTH KOREA BASED ON CLIMATE CHANGE

摘要

The objective of this study was to develop a method of probabilistic fl ood risk assessmentunder climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the newRepresentative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios of climate change. The RCP4.5scenario was selected to estimate future fl ood damages. The study area was the Koreanpeninsula. The spatial and temporal resolutions were on a city and county basis and for fourtime periods (1990s: 1976-2005, 2025s: 2011-2040, 2055s: 2041-2070 and 2085s: 2071-2100). Proxy variables were selected to assess the fl ood risk. Z-score method was usedto standardize indicators and principal component analysis was conducted to calculate theweighting of indicators. Probability distribution of each indicator was fi tted to analyze the fl oodrisk. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was chosen as proper distribution.Convolution was used to merge all probability density functions. As a result, it was concludedthat the fl ood risk could increase during 2025s period and continue to rise up to 2055s period.Especially, the extent of the increase from 1990s to 2025s is so large that the countermeasureneed to be developed. It is also expected that southern area is more risky for fl ood. It isexpected to be used as proper data to establish adaptation policy for climate change.