A study was conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on agricultural drought on104 agricultural reservoirs in Korea. The bias corrected data appropriately reproduced thetemporal trends of infl ow, water demand, and storage level. When various Global ClimateModel (GCM) data was applied to a representative reservoir, infl ow from upstream watershedsby individual GCMs had a range of -11.5% to 11.1%, compared to the multi-model ensembles(MME) mean value. Water demand from paddy areas also showed a similar trend to theinfl ow, had a range of uncertainty from -11.0% to 10.0%, while storage level had a narrowrange of uncertainty range from -3.9% to 2.1%. When 104 reservoirs were considered,infl ow to the reservoirs in the future period (2011~2040) increased by 7.8% and 9.3% for theRepresentative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, mainlydue to the increase in precipitation. Similarly, irrigation water demand increased by 2.3% and1.6% for RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively, due to the increase in temperature. As a result, thewater storage level increased by 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, for RCP4.5 and 8.5, due tothe combined infl uences of the increase in infl ow and in water demand. However, despite theincrease in average reservoir storage level, the frequency of the number of droughts moresevere than 10 years increased. It is suggested that a no- regret or low-regret approach basedon non-structural measures will be most appropriate as an adaptation measure, consideringthe high uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment results.
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