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A Systematic Approach to Applying the Delphi Method in Construction Engineering and Management Research

机译:在建筑工程和管理研究中应用德尔菲法的系统方法

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The Delphi Method has been established as an effective way to determine the collective opinion of a group of experts. However, one of the main criticisms of the Delphi Method is that it lacks clear guidelines on how to systematically implement a study. Existing guidelines tend to be difficult to extend to other studies, leading to inconsistent usage of the method. These inconsistencies can lead to various levels of rigor in the application of the Delphi Method. While other papers provide a foundation for defining parameters, additional research is needed to show how to effectively choose and apply them within a study. This paper will demonstrate a set of parameters and how they were chosen with the intention of providing guidance for future Delphi studies. Parameters that will be discussed are; a) the use of content analysis to strengthen the first round of a Modified Delphi study, b) how to operationalize a measure of consensus, c) the importance of defining criteria for expert inclusion in a study, and d) the sufficient number of experts required. By improving the process for applying a Delphi study the method will gain in strength and rigor for its use in future research. How these parameters were implemented in a recently completed Delphi study for research sponsored by the Construction Industry Institute will be discussed. This demonstration will provide future researchers with a starting point for systematically designing Delphi Studies and provide a set of guidelines for successfully executing such studies.
机译:建立Delphi方法是确定专家组集体意见的有效方法。但是,德尔菲法的主要批评之一是它缺乏关于如何系统地进行研究的明确指导方针。现有指南往往难以扩展到其他研究中,从而导致该方法的用法不一致。这些不一致可能导致在Delphi方法的应用中出现各种严格程度的要求。虽然其他论文为定义参数提供了基础,但还需要进行其他研究以显示如何在研究中有效选择和应用它们。本文将演示一组参数以及如何选择它们,以为将来的Delphi研究提供指导。将要讨论的参数是; a)使用内容分析来加强修改后的Delphi研究的第一轮工作; b)如何实施共识措施; c)定义专家纳入研究的标准的重要性; d)足够数量的专家必需的。通过改进应用Delphi研究的过程,该方法将在将来的研究中得到增强和增强。将讨论在最近完成的Delphi研究中如何实现这些参数,该研究由建筑工业协会赞助。该演示将为未来的研究人员提供系统设计Delphi研究的起点,并为成功进行此类研究提供一系列指导。

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