Improved Estimation of Average Annual Aircraft Delay for Variable Wind / Weather Conditions and Runway Configurations Using Queuing Theory

摘要

The FORTRAN-based FAA Annual Delay Model (ADM) was the basis for the aircraft delay analysis methodology in the FAA Advisory Circular 150/5060-5, Airport Capacity and Delay. The core of this methodology is a set of curves developed through a combination of queuing theory and discrete event simulation, which were incorporated in the ADM for estimating average delay as a function of the ratio of hourly demand to hourly capacity for a given fleet mix and split between arrivals and departures. The ADM estimates average hourly aircraft for representative sets of weather conditions, demand levels, and hourly runway capacity. This model has four key drawbacks that could lead to inaccurate estimation of average annual delay in certain instances, such as when demand is near saturation and during IMC weather. An enhanced queuing theory-based model was developed that allows for rule-based airport preferences for runway configurations and actual hourly weather data for determining the runway configuration and corresponding capacity to estimate. The updated model provides more transparent and realistic estimates of average aircraft delay and addresses major shortcomings in the existing model.