AN ASSESSMENT OF TOTAL DEPLETION UNCERTAINTIES FOR A GBC-32 DRY STORAGE CASK WITH PLUS7 FUELS USING MONTE CARLO SAMPLING AND TWO-WAY ANOVA F-TEST

摘要

It is important to accurately evaluate depletion uncertainties that exist due to the limitations of a computer code on accuracy in a nuclear depletion calculation for criticality safety analysis. In this work, the bias and bias uncertainty in the effective neutron multiplication factor (k_(eff)) for the generic 32 PWR-assembly burnup credit (GBC-32) cask system were assessed using the Monte Carlo uncertainty sampling method for three different burnups and the iso-topic biases and uncertainties obtained with the calculated and measured isotopic concentrations. The PLUS7 used nuclear fuel assemblies discharged from the Hanbit Nuclear Power Plant Unit 3 were assumed to be loaded into the GBC-32 cask. In addition, the statistical F-test in the two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was suggested to efficiently estimate the statistically converged total depletion uncertainty in k_(eff), with a significant reduction of computing efforts in the Monte Carlo criticality calculations, and it was applied to the GBC-32 cask system after a sensitivity analysis was performed to select the important nuclides having significant contributions to the total depletion uncertainty. With the statistical F-tests in the two-way ANOVA, 100 criticality calculations were needed to get a statistically converged total depletion uncertainty for 10 and 30 GWD/MTU, while 120 criticality calculations were needed for 50 GWD/MTU.